World heading for catastrophe over natural disasters, risk expert warns
With cascading crises where one event triggers another set to rise, international disaster risk reduction efforts are woefully underfunded
The worlds failure to prepare for natural disasters will have inconceivably bad consequences as climate change fuels a huge increase in catastrophic droughts and floods and the humanitarian crises that follow, the UNs head of disaster planning has warned.
Last year, earthquakes, floods, heatwaves and landslides left 22,773 people dead, affected 98.6 million others and caused $66.5bn (47bn) of economic damage (pdf). Yet the international community spends less than half of one per cent of the global aid budget on mitigating the risks posed by such hazards.
Robert Glasser, the special representative of the secretary general for disaster risk reduction, said that with the world already falling short in its response to humanitarian emergencies, things would only get worse as climate change adds to the pressure.
He said: If you see that were already spending huge amounts of money and are unable to meet the humanitarian need and then you overlay that with not just population growth [but] you put climate change on top of that, where were seeing an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters, and the knock-on effects with respect to food security and conflict and new viruses like the Zika virus or whatever you realise that the only way were going to be able to deal with these trends is by getting out ahead of them and focusing on reducing disaster risk.
Failure to plan properly by factoring in the effects of climate change, he added, would result in a steep rise in the vulnerability of those people already most exposed to natural hazards. He also predicted a rise in the number of simultaneous disasters.
As the odds of any one event go up, the odds of two happening at the same time are more likely. Well see many more examples of cascading crises, where one event triggers another event, which triggers another event.
Glasser pointed to Syria, where years of protracted drought led to a massive migration of people from rural areas to cities in the run-up to the countrys civil war. While he stressed that the drought was by no means the only driver of the conflict, he said droughts around the world could have similarly destabilising effects especially when it came to conflicts in Africa.
Its inconceivably bad, actually, if we dont get a handle on it, and theres a huge sense of urgency to get this right, he said. I think country leaders will become more receptive to this agenda simply because the disasters are going to make that obvious. The real question in my mind is: can we act before thats obvious and before the costs have gone up so tremendously? And thats the challenge.